Southside
employs a successful, proprietary
process to building equity portfolios.
This disciplined strategy focuses
equally on stock selection and risk
control. The application of this strategy
to clients’ portfolios has been
jointly developed by Southside and
Argus Research. Argus Research and
its team of analysts serve as Southside’s
primary research provider.
Our
core equity portfolio consists of
fifty predominantly large cap stocks
typically representing every sector
of the economy. By maintaining a disciplined
diversification strategy and then
more heavily weighting those companies
and sectors we believe will outperform
over the near term, we seek to realize
superior returns for our clients with
limited incremental risk.
The security selection process is
a blend of top-down and bottom-up
analysis. It begins with Industry
Analysis. The first step
is to formulate a forecast for the
economy and interest rates. Based
on this forecast, a determination
is made about which industries are
expected to perform well over the
next one-to-two years. Within each
industry, analysts determine specific
companies’ competitive positions
and prospects.
Growth Analysis is
the second step in the process. Analysts
forecast growth in sales, earnings,
dividends and cash flow for each company
by studying growth in individual product
lines, in margins, in the industry
and in the economy. After smoothing
a company's historical growth rates
to account for fluctuations, it is
analyzed versus the company's peers
and the market.
Financial Strength Analysis
is the third step. A Financial Strength
rating is determined for each company
within the universe of coverage. To
assess financial strength, an elaborate
ratio analysis is conducted, moving
beyond the financial statements and
into the footnotes of a company's
SEC documents to fully understand
obligations and opportunities.
The fourth step is a qualitative Management
Assessment. In short, analysts need
to know management in order to make
a recommendation on a stock. To get
to know management, they attend meetings,
presentations and road shows with
senior managers, travel to corporate
facilities and participate in conference
calls.
Risk Analysis is
the fifth step. Risk is considered
from both a qualitative and quantitative
standpoint. On a qualitative basis,
each company is reviewed in the context
of Harvard Professor Michael Porter's
Five Forces model to determine potential
threats. On a quantitative basis,
proprietary data from Vickers Stock
Research is analyzed regarding institutional
and insider ownership trends. A regression
analysis is conducted to determine
the correlation of a company's stock
returns with the market's returns,
and to determine the predictability
of the relationship. The volatility
of key financial statistics is also
measured, including sales and earnings
growth, and margins. Finally, a fundamental
floor is determined for every stock
in the universe of coverage through
Valuation Analysis.
Valuation Analysis,
the final step, varies by industry.
For mature or predictable sectors
of the economy, stock price activity
is analyzed in terms of annual sales,
cash flow, dividends, book value,
earnings, and earnings relative to
the S&P 500. Normal ratio ranges
for these various parameters are determined,
and then adjusted going forward based
on trends in a company's growth and
profitability. These adjusted ranges
are applied to key sales, earnings
and cash flow forecasts to arrive
at a normal trading range. A Target
Price within that trading range is
established, and the difference between
the Target Price and current price
(adjusted for the Beta of the stock)
is measured. If the forecast risk-adjusted
return on the stock is greater than
the forecast return on the market,
a “buy” rating is assigned
to the stock.
A company within the universe of coverage
can be designated a “sell”
for not passing
any of the above steps. Most often,
stocks rated “sell” are
either fully valued, face extraordinary
risks, or are in an industry that
is expected to under perform the broad
market.
In
summary, our disciplined investment
process incorporates three key
critical elements.
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- Seeks
to maximize return at an appropriate
level of risk
- Controls
risk by limiting large sector,
industry and issue concentration
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- Combines
fundamental analyst bottom
up input with top down economic
and market analysis
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- Provides
exposure to different management
styles
- Combines
value and growth factors for
consistent performance
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